My money is on the fact that the 10.1.10 MSP does not like your 10.0.0 -> 10.1.9 upgrade path.
Adobe writes these MSPs assuming that patches have been applied incrementally.
My guess is that the 10.1.10 MSP is looking for the 10.1.0 ProductID and/or the 10.1.9 PatchID in the Windows Installer database, and one or both of them are not there.
At a minimum, I think you're going to need to go 10.0.x -> 10.1.0 -> and incrementally to 10.1.9 (which has always been the ultimate annoyance of Acrobat patching).